Are we having an impact?
The Oxvote website is proving popular.
We launched officially on the 3rd April, the day the full list of candidates was announced. In the fortnight since we have had 13,700 visitors, an average of just under 1,000 a day.
This heatmap shows which of our division recommendation pages are the most visited. every division page has been viewed at least 10 times, with the most popular divisions viewed over 100 times.
Most popular have been the divisions in and around Oxford city.
We project that four of the City’s divisions will be among the most heavily contested in the whole election:
Summertown and Walton Manor is a fierce contest between Liberal Democrat and Labour, and the Lib Dems need just a handful of tactical votes to win. Labour has a strong showing in the area, but we predict that their chances will be hindered by both boundary changes and the presence of both Independent Oxford Alliance and Reform candidates.
Marston and Northway is a three-way contest between Labour, Green and the Independent Oxford Alliance. We are predicting a Labour win, although the Greens are in with a good chance.
In Rose Hill and Littlemore we see Labour as winning by a narrow margin, with the Independent Oxford Alliance suffering as their vote may be split with Reform.
And in Parks, covering the city centre, St Clements and many of the University Colleges, we see the Greens as narrowly pipping Labour to the post.
Outside of the City, the closest fought contests are in:
Goring and Woodcote, Benson and Crowmarsh and Watlington and Rotherfield where we have the Greens slated to win by the narrowest of margins.
Banbury Easington, where Labour need a handful of tactical votes to head off the Conservatives.
And Bicester North where the Lib Dems have a reasonable chance of beating the Conservatives.
We project that the outcome of these 8 divisions will be determined by just 325 votes, which is just 1% of the estimated turnout in these divisions.
For all of these divisions, our recommendation page has been viewed more times than the number of tactical votes that we think are needed to get the best outcome for the climate.
So, with two weeks still to go, Oxvote could make all the difference. Please spread the word!