Will Reform win council seats in Oxfordshire?

According to Politico, Reform is currently the most popular party in Britain. 24% of people say they would vote Reform, marginally ahead of Labour. The Conservatives are on 22%, Lib Dems 15% and Greens 9%.

This is a far cry from the July 24 general election, when Labour was on 34% and Reform 14%. Labour’s popularity has been falling while Reform is on the rise. Since the election, the Greens are also up 2% and the Lib Dems up 3%.

But will these national voting intentions be reflected in the Oxfordshire county council elections? 

We predict Reform could take second or third place in up to one third of the divisions in the county. Reform presents the biggest challenge to Labour in seats within Oxford CIty, such as Leys, Isis and Barton, Sandhills and Risinghurst, where we see them coming second to Labour. So be sure to vote Labour in these seats.

But although Reform is a serious threat, we don’t see them winning any seats. Instead we predict that the smaller rise in popularity of the Greens and Liberal Democrats is more likely to convert into electoral wins.